The latest forecast from the International Data Corporation (IDC) predicts a 6.2% growth in worldwide smartphone shipments in 2024. This growth comes after two years of significant declines and is driven by a pent-up demand for device upgrades. The IDC report highlights that this strong rebound is expected to slow down to low single digits from 2025 onwards, with a 2.6% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2023 to 2028.
One of the key factors contributing to this growth is the rapid expansion of Android devices in emerging markets such as APeJC, Latin America, Middle East, Africa, and China. Particularly in low-end devices, Android is expected to grow by 7.6% year-over-year in 2024. In contrast, iOS growth is forecasted to be much more modest at 0.4% for the same period. Despite Apple’s success in emerging markets like India, the company faces challenges in larger markets like China, the US, and Europe.
Looking ahead to 2025, the IDC report predicts a shift in the market dynamics, with iOS expected to grow by 3.1% year-over-year, outpacing Android’s forecasted 1.7% growth. The report also mentions the rise of new foldable phone models, which continue to generate buzz in the market. Despite a decline of 7.4% in Q3, foldables are expected to grow by 10.5% in 2024 and maintain double-digit growth through 2028.
However, the pace of growth in the foldable phone segment is slowing down as Chinese vendors, who are driving this market, shift their focus and investments towards GenAI smartphones. Concerns about durability and the lack of unique use cases are also cited as factors dampening growth in this segment.
In conclusion, the smartphone market is set to experience a significant rebound in 2024, driven by the growth of Android devices in emerging markets. While iOS is expected to make gains in the coming years, the market dynamics are likely to shift as new technologies and consumer preferences evolve. Stay tuned for more updates on the evolving smartphone market trends.
